If you are an existing client, and would like to access your
TD Ameritrade accounts, you can do so by clicking on the TDA
Account Access link to the left (the last link in bold in the
navigation area on the left hand side of this page).
If you are a prospective client and would like more
information on Sean Curley and/or The Retirement Planning
Specialists, click here. For more
information about our services or how we may be able to help you,
Please let us know if there is anything we can do for you or
any way we can be of service and, as always, thank you for your
trust and your business.
A Short Note on Election Markets and Unpredictability (November 10th, 2016)
Regardless of how you voted this election cycle, the last two days show just how difficult it is to predict what the market might do given a specific event occurring (never
mind how difficult it is to predict a specific event itself). In the weeks leading up to the election, the US market was down nine days in a row on fears that the election
might be slipping away from Hillary Clinton based on the FBI reopening the investigation of her emails. Then, on news of the FBI essentially saying, "nothing to see here",
the market stabilized on Monday and Tuesday of this week. Taken together, those 11 days in the market would seem to have indicated that the market would look favorably
on a Clinton win and negatively on a Trump win, and as the election results came in Tuesday night, US and global stock market futures plummeted, down 850 points at
one point on Tuesday night...again seeming to confirm the assumption that the market would tumble on a Trump win.
But, as the market has a way of doing, it confounded nearly EVERYONE on Wednesday, rising 256 points, and again today, as I write this, up another 163 points. The
lesson to take from the last several days is *not* that markets tend to do better under republicans than under democrats, as that is a very mixed bag of results (and keep
in mind, markets have risen more than 10,000 points over the last 8 years). The point IS this: even if you know what is going to happen (i.e., Donald Trump would win)
-- and of course, even that would have been impossible to know in advance with any certainly -- knowing that doesn't tell you what the market might do in reaction. I think
most -- probably even many, if not most, who voted for Donald Trump -- are surprised in light of the market's behavior in the two weeks leading up to the election.
So, that all said, remember that trying to outguess the market is usually an exercise in futility, and any time spent doing so would probably be better spent (and perhaps
at a much lower cost) at a blackjack table in Vegas.
As always, please let us know if you would like to discuss any of this or if there is anything we can do for you.
For a comprehensive quarterly dataset on market performance
and valuations, here is JPMorgan's quarterly
Littlebook -- 70-some pages of market valuation and
performance information that's hard to beat, and which is
made available to advisors for client use.